ABN Amro: house price is not going to fall (after all)

Statue of Hollandse Hoogte / Hans van Rhoon

The increase of the limit for a National Mortgage Guarantee to 325 thousand euros and the broadening of the loan options for dual earners also contribute to the tension in the housing market, the bank writes. This also applies to a more flexible approach by banks with student debts and the abolition of transfer tax for buyers up to the age of 35 years.

Due to the ‘persistent housing shortage’, demand remains high. Working from home also plays a role: people therefore attach more importance to a pleasant home. ‘Hard evidence for this is lacking, but analysis of search behavior shows that potential buyers show more interest in homes with an extra room and an outdoor space.’

If the economic consequences of the corona crisis are more severe next year, the number of home sales will fall by about 10 percent, the bank predicts. This is usually a precursor to a price drop.

According to the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), the average purchase price of existing homes was 6.4 percent higher in August than in August 2019 at 336 thousand euros. Based on the price index, the valuation was 8.2 percent higher. The price level is now at its highest level since the 1970s. House prices have also risen sharply in other countries, but the Netherlands is one of the leaders.

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